Join Ian as he covers the 2019 STAT report for the valley's housing inventory.



Video Transcript:

Hello everyone. This is Ian with the Kay-Grant Group. Today we're going to be covering the STAT Report for October 2019. And what this is is this is a snapshot of the overall available inventory, price per square foot, things along those lines for the entire Valley or just Maricopa County for the most part. And we're going to cover all of these things and kind of give you an idea of what you can get for your home if you were to sell right now and also what you can buy. So why don't we go ahead and get on into it.

So when we look at total inventory, and this is Valley for Maricopa County, last month we had about 17,700-ish and this month we have 18,443 and the exact number of increase, you're looking at a 3.7% increase in inventory. This would indicate that there are people that are trying to take advantage of the rise in cost per square foot in the more desirable subdivisions that are in, especially Scottsdale. I'm going to be showcasing that a little bit later here. However, year over year, we're still looking at a 15.2% decrease in total available inventory. Now when we're looking at stability, historically between 28,000 and 35,000 total inventory of homes being available is where you see cost per square foot doing a healthy rise versus the steep inclines that you're going to be seeing later here. But that's where our current inventory stands right now.

So when we look at new inventory coming onto the market, if we actually look at this month over month, we've actually had a significant amount pop up when we compare it. So last month, we had about 8,700-ish new inventory coming into the market and has increased by nearly a 1000 and the specific number is a 10.2% increase month over month. Once again, people are starting to trend towards selling their home since we are historically, well I wouldn't say historically, but we are on the rise right now. And also 'tis the season when it comes to selling and moving here to the Valley. So and then when we look at it year over year, not really that much of a difference, but let's go ahead and move onto the next one.

So when we look at the average new listing prices, we see a jump from a $405.03 to $428 per square foot and that represents a 5.6% increase year over year. We are going to expect this to keep ongoing. Then when you average it in the median prices, where you look at a little bit more lower cost per square footage areas, that brings it down to about $300 per square foot, but you're still seeing a pretty substantial upgrade from year over year and that's 4.5% increase.

So what we see for the sales forecast for next month in December is that we should see a little bit of a jump overall when you average it out. However, there are going to be outliers, which we will be covering here in a minute, that can cause this to really spill up, and especially I'm going to be using Scottsdale subdivisions as a use case, that are going to be higher. Some might be lower, and I'm going to tell you why.

So if you'd actually been watching some of my other market updates, previously, it's talked about Scottsdale Springs and you're looking at this enormous jump in price per square foot, mostly due to because of where it's located, because it's so close to Old Town Scottsdale. It has well-maintained amenities. And also the inventory is, almost is completely zero right now and it's very rare that they come on the market. So this is assisting in driving the average cost per square foot up. And if we look at the next, a little bit more desirable area that actually has a significant amount of inventory that contributes to this average that we're getting.

We can also look at Villa Monterey, which has a large amount of inventory within the Scottsdale area. They're also experiencing something very similar here. And that's why we're seeing a pretty sharp increase for the Q4 price per square foot. There was a little bit of a dip, but now it's gone up because of lack of inventory problems.

Another subdivision, which actually accounts for a large amount of the inventory in the Old Town area, is Scottsdale Estates. As you can see, it's following not as steep of an incline, but a very similar upward trend that is adding to this overall price per square foot increase in the Valley. Although, we do have an outlier that's bucking trends and I'm going to be showing you on the next slide.

So the outlier right now in Old Town, where we actually have seen a decrease in the overall price per square foot, it's actually an oddity and there's good at reason why. Park Scottsdale makes up one of the largest inventories as far as subdivisions in the Old Town area. But also what it's very popular for is Airbnbs. So you'd have this phenomenon where you have a lot of these investors that will come in. They're going to buy these properties as low as they possibly can. And then they're going to either rent them out, which also is going to be increasing the overall price, but they're not on the market so they're not active and not affecting these statistics. But if they ever choose to sell them, that's why they're, you see a massive increase in price per square foot because they do such a wonderful overhaul. If you ever actually look into that, it's really impressive what they can do with these places.

But that's also can explain why you see a pretty consistently, in the last few years in Q3, where the price per square foot just launches right up is because this is when if they want to get out of the investor mid game, that's the prime time to go ahead and sell them off. We saw a little bit of a spike like that for Q3, but the reason why we're looking at the dip in Q4 is because we're getting a lot of investors trying to buy as low as possible and that's affecting that price per square foot.

Also if you're looking to valuate your home there, make sure you talk to a really good realtor to actually properly comp your properties because something that actually was being renovated for Airbnb is not going to be a comp for anything that hasn't been renovated associatively, so that can throw off your price per square foot and make it much harder sell. So make sure you consult a professional, which we are more than happy to do. So this is our contact information. We do provide a free home evaluations. If you are in the market to sell, this is absolutely the time to do it. So you can go ahead and just give us a call at 480-387-3990 with the Kay-Grant Group. Thanks for hanging with me and hopefully we can help you out. Thank you.

You can click here to view the full STAT Report.