Join Ian as he covers the status of the housing market in Scottsdale AZ to help you determine whether to buy or sell a home. 

 

 

 

 

Full Video Transcript, sorry this is a long one but it's worth it:

Hello everyone. This is Ian with a Kay-Grant Group. Since we're nearing the end of the year, we're actually going to be covering larger areas rather than subdivisions. Today we're going to actually going to be covering the Scottsdale housing market and we're going to be going over which zip codes would be the best to actually do some selling and then do a little bit of talk about the remainders and what would be a good decision if you choose to either buy or sell right now. So let's go ahead and jump on in without further ado.

So if you are new to the Phoenix and Scottsdale area, here's an example of how big Scottsdale actually is. When most people think about it, even if they've been here for awhile, they think that okay, where that little blue dot is, that's Old Town Scottsdale where we're located. And then just a little bit North to about a little bit over the 101, where you see it bend is where most people think Scottsdale stops, but it actually goes all the way up to right where Carefree and Cave Creek are. So now that we have an idea of where the scope is, let's kind of move on into what we're looking at as far as home pricing.

So when we look at the average price per square foot in all of the Scottsdale areas combined, we're actually looking at a ticking clock here. You look at it year over year for the last five years you get Q3 dip, Q3 dip, Q3 dip, Q3 dip, Q3 dip. And when we just go ahead and climb, you have slight differences, but we go ahead and climb right up until it up Q2 and then Q3 it just plummets. Most of that has to do with the summer, but I went ahead and picked out what are the zip code areas that you want to be selling in right now, because we desperately need sellers right now because we have a massive inventory shortage.

We're going to go ahead and dive on into those here in a few slides. So as far as total inventory sales within Scottsdale, we're pretty much going to be on par with last year, and pretty close to the year before. Major difference, as I said before, we have a huge lack of an inventory. That's why we're seeing this exponential growth and price per square foot. Now I had forgotten to mention this before but when I searched on our website which pulls everything directly from the MLS for all the total amount of properties that are available in Scottsdale, we came up with 1606 properties available. Now I really want you to remember this number because I'm going to be pointing at this out a little bit later and this is going to be important. So why don't we go ahead and move on to the next one.

So the first Scottsdale zip code we're going to cover is 85250. And the main subdivisions that you're going to find in here is McCormick Ranch. And you're also going to find a good portion of Scottsdale Estates in here as well, make up a huge majority of the old town area. So to give you an idea where this is, if it's not clear on the picture, this is going to include Chaparral all the way up to right where Talking Stick is going to be. And that also the street changes over from Talking Stick to Indian Bend. So when we look at the price per square foot, what we're actually looking at is something that pretty much just kind of buck trends, in prior quarters or years rather. In Q3 usually you actually see that dip, but you see it rise here.

The main reason for this rise is if you move into McCormick Ranch, almost nobody moves out. It's very rare for anything to come on the market there. However, this is the absolute time to do it just because of how long a sale can take, anywhere between 30 and 60 days on average. If you want to get top dollar for your home, now's the time to start just because you want to avoid that very predictable Q3 dip. And actually, the Q3 drip will actually start right in the middle of Q2 just because that's how long the sales cycle is going to be. So when we look at how many available properties that are in this zip code, we come up with a grand total of 25, which is way below where it has been historically. I mean if we look at this year over year, you're looking at five to 600 homes sold per year.

Now if we only have 25 properties going into queue, this is a big indicator as to why our price per square foot is skyrocketing right now. So the next neighborhood we're going to take a look at is the neighborhoods that are and 85254. If you can't tell from the map that actually stretches all the way from Shay all the way up to Frank Lloyd Wright and it sits between Scottsdale and I believe that is Tatum Road. So maybe a little bit shorter of that. But anyways, this is actually one of the largest, most densely filled as far as homes are concerned. So when we look at the price per square foot in the 58254 area, it's always looked like it's remained fairly steady, however, we've seen a huge jump right now and we're looking at about a 5% to 6% jump, pretty similar to what we saw in the last zip code that we were looking at.

Looking at the number of properties that are available in 85254, we come up with a grand total of 144 properties, massive shortage. Once again, this is an area that sells between 800 and 900 properties a year. With this type of inventory, that totally explains why in Q4 we are skyrocketing in price per square foot. So the next area that we would recommend putting your house on the market would be the 85260 area code and for obvious reasons, location, location, location. The 101 runs right through it and you have tons of amenities in this area in business parks and a lot of really wonderful helps. Impervious to the infamous Q3 dip as it has just been on an absolute Northern trajectory. So if you're going to sell, obviously everything here points to, yeah, go ahead and sell now.

And when we look at the total available properties in this area, it's just 101. This is also an area that historically per year, it's sold between 500 and 600 properties per year. And if this is what we're going to be maintaining at, that number is not going to be achievable this next year. So now that we've talked about everywhere where you for certain want to put your home on the market if you want to make a profit, let's go ahead and talk about the neighborhoods that you may not want to, but also if you're a savvy investor, you might be able to find some screaming deals. And that's in the true North Scottsdale area. And so when we look at the average price per square foot in the very Northern tip of Scottsdale area, even though overall we have seen a pretty significant rise over the last five years, it is incredibly erratic where you see a magnificent drop from Q2 to Q3, and we're not looking at a magnificent recovery at all.

This could be due to multiple reasons, is that there's a lot of construction up there. A lot of high end homes where a lot of people that are in that Northern territory, yes, they have very nice custom homes, but that's just it. They're also custom and there are a lot of money. You have a lot of people that are moving into that area where they're building up these nice custom complexes, but they're sitting vacant as well and that's probably right there in the Q3 of 2018 that's where a lot of that was happening. So to also explain why it isn't doing this big huge recovery right after that Q3 dip, we'll go ahead and look at the reason why next.

So when we look at the available properties that are available in that very Northern Scottsdale area, it's a 571 properties, which if you remember what I had said earlier, there was only 1606 properties available in the entirety of the Scottsdale area. They make up over one third of the available properties, so that's why you're not seeing this enormous bounce back from that dip that you'd seen earlier because they make up well over 30% of the available properties out there.

So if you are savvy or if you want us to give you a hand, by all means, we'd more than happy to help you find a screaming deal up there.

All right everyone, if you made it to this far in the video, I congratulate you. But at this point, if you have any questions, feel free to contact us. This is our contact information, or you can go to our website, fill out a contact form. If you're looking to put your house on the market and you're in those areas that I described earlier, by all means we're more than happy to help. And if you feel like you're a pretty savvy investor, however you want to kind of look around in the Northern Scottsdale area, by all means, we're here to help you out. Thank you, and if you don't hear from us again, you all have a happy holiday.